要如何解決排名的算計(下)

The 1990 lottery was the first weighted lottery. New Jersey, the worst team in
the league, had 11 chances to win it. Miami, the second-worst team, had 10
chances. The last team in the lottery, 41-41 Atlanta, had one chance.
This was the formula until 1993, when Orlando (which had gone 41-41 with rookie
Shaquille O'Neal) won the lottery for the second year in a row. NBA commissioner
David Stern made no secret of the fact he was not happy.
                                                                             
1990是第一屆加權選秀，New Jersey當年最鳥，有11倍機率拿狀元；Miami第二鳥，有10倍
機率，最後一個有機會的41勝41負Atlanta有1倍。
這公式搞到1993就搞不下去了，因為Orlando擁有狀元俠客後戰績41勝41負，隔年又再度連
莊(按：Chris Webber，但馬上被交易換Penny)，史騰不滿之情溢於言表。
                                                                             
The next year, Stern changed the lottery again. It became even more unevenly
weighted. The best team in the lottery, 41-41 Charlotte, had an 0.5 percent
chance of winning it. The worst team, 13-69, Dallas, had a 25 percent chance.
The league has expanded since then, increasing the number of lottery teams. But
this is basically the same lottery we have today.
Stern had good reasons for everything he did along the way. Any lottery is much

better than no lottery at all. Imagine if the worst team in the NBA

automatically got the No. 1 pick this season, and got to choose among Wiggins,

Parker and Randle next summer. Then you would see some SERIOUS tanking. Like,

teams would call plays for their ball boys.

                                                                                

隔年，他就改變了樂透選秀制，加權不平均了，41勝41負Charlotte只有0.5%機率去贏狀元

籤，最鳥的13勝69敗Dallas有25%機率，聯盟就這樣制訂規則至今，並增加些隊伍進來抽籤

，但也跟今日誌度差不多，史騰總有個好理由，有點籤總比沒籤好。想像若最鳥球隊自動拿

狀元，Wiggins, Parker 與Randle三選一，你就會看到更專業的算計，例如，讓球僮去指揮

若定。

                                                                                

But the current lottery is still significantly flawed, because it places too

great a value on being the worst team in the league. The lottery is constructed

under the assumption that if Team A has a slightly better record than Team B, it

is truly a slightly better team. This is built upon another assumption: Team A

and Team B are both trying as hard as they can, all the time.

That's not really true. There are really two tiers of lottery teams.

                                                                                

但現今制度還是有缺陷，因為最鳥球隊背後潛藏了極大利益，樂透籤制度立基於隊伍A比隊

伍B稍稍好一點的假設，且也假設隊伍A隊伍B都毫無保留的比賽。這不可能成真，這兒有兩

排的球隊有樂透籤呢！

The half-dozen or so worst teams in the league are generally awful. They all

need the boost that comes with one of the top picks in the draft. Last year's

seventh- and eighth-worst teams, Detroit and Washington (they had the same 29-53

record) would have needed at least nine more wins to earn a playoff bid, and for

those teams, nine wins was a lot.

                                                                                

如果有半打擺爛就很恐怖了，他們亟需潛力新秀來推升他們的戰績，去年第七八鳥的

Detroit與 Washington(同為29勝53負)只要再九勝就有季後賽門票，但對它們來說，

九勝很難。

                                                                                

The second tier of lottery teams are teams that were in the playoff hunt, or at

least had good reasons to believe they would be. Last year, Minnesota and

Philadelphia were ravaged by injuries. Portland had a playoff-quality starting

five but no bench. Teams in that tier of the lottery played most of the season

without thinking about the No. 1 pick.

So here is your solution: The seven worst teams in the league all get the same

chance of winning the lottery. Let's say they each have a 10 percent chance of

winning it. Then the league weights the rest of the lottery. The chart above

would look something like this:

                                                                                

對於第二排的樂透球隊來說，他們很接近季後賽了，或許也有幾個好理由支持他們會進去，

去年，Minnesota 與Philadelphia病痛纏身，Philadelphia排得出先發但無板凳奧援。

第二排的樂透球隊其實沒對狀元籤動腦筋。

所以狀況來了，假設它們都有10%機率贏它，然後聯盟調整樂透權重，圖表會像這樣:

                                                                                

2012-13 NBA 樂透籤(我的提案)

                                                                                

隊伍         戰績    狀元籤機會

Orlando      20-63   10

Charlotte    21-61   10

Cleveland    24-58   10

Phoenix      25-57   10

New Orleans  27-55   10

Sacramento   28-54   10

Detroit      29-53   10

Washington   29-53   9

Minnesota    31-51   7

Portland     33-49   5

Philadelphia 34-48   3

Toronto      34-48   2

Dallas       41-41   2

Utah         43-39   2

                                                                                

How would that change the behavior of teams? Well, the future is hard to predict

, or at least hard to predict accurately. But I think it would accomplish the

two primary goals of the lottery: rewarding the worst teams in the league, and

discouraging tanking.

                                                                                

這會怎麼改變球隊的行為？嗯，未來更難預測了，或更難準確預測，且我想會達成兩個主要

目的:1.獎勵鳥隊們。2.降低算計。

                                                                                

WINN: Michigan State outshines top picks at Champions Classic

The really lousy teams would still get the best shot at the top picks. But they

would have no incentive to out-stink each other. That would mean that, when

general managers constructed their teams over the summer, they would be more

likely to add a player or two that would improve their team, because the

downside risk (losing ping-pong balls for the lottery) would not be there.

                                                                                

最鳥球隊還是有最高選秀權，但減少比爛動機，當總管進行重建計畫，也會加一兩個球員去

保持球隊戰力，因為下跌風險已不復在。

                                                                                

This would also help take care of the perception problem. Once the season was

underway, there would be no question: The players on the court would try to win.

So would the coaches. This would make the worst teams more watchable, which

would be good for fans, and good for the credibility of the league. There would

still be bad teams, but that's true in every league. You just don't want anybody

thinking it is good to be the worst.

                                                                                

這也能顧到觀念，當球季進行，毫無疑問，球員跟教練會努力去贏，最鳥球隊更具可看性，

球迷也獲益，聯盟更可信，雖還是有爛隊，但那是事實，我們只是不想有人處心積慮變鳥

罷了。

                                                                                

The teams in the upper tier of the lottery would also be unlikely to tank. They

would have too much to gain by making the playoffs, even as a No. 8 seed: at

least two home games' worth of revenue, positive publicity with the fan base,

playoff experience for younger players, and the once-a-decade chance of pulling

an upset. That's not worth giving up for a two-percent chance at the No. 1 pick.

That's why the bottom half of the lottery would be weighted -- you can't have

teams bailing on a playoff race.

                                                                                

那樂透籤第二排球隊也不會去算計，它們會更努力拼計後賽，即使是老八，至少兩場主場也

能賺票房、球迷、年輕球員的大賽經驗與十年一次擺脫萬年爛隊揚眉吐氣的機會。為2%機率

賭狀元太不值得，這也是為何較底的樂透籤權重要調整-不讓球隊放棄爭奪季後賽。

                                                                                

Oh, I suppose that in the final week or two of the season, teams that have been

eliminated from the playoff hunt might tank, to slightly increase their lottery

odds. But they would be tanking a game or two. They wouldn't be tanking the

whole season.

喔，我假定在球季的最後幾周，有些確定被淘汰的球隊會算計，去增加中獎機會，但那只會

影響幾場比賽，而非一整季。

                                                                                

Some general managers would still decide to rebuild by trading their best

players for draft choices and young talent, and to free up salary-cap space.

But that falls under patience, not tanking. You see similar moves in

other sports.

                                                                                

有些總管仍決定靠交易球員換選秀籤與薪資空間，但最終輸在耐性，而非算計本身，你在其

他職業運動也能見到相同情形。

                                                                                

Teams are like people; for the most part, they act out of self-interest. The NBA

just has to make sure it is not in team's best interests to tank. A simple tweak

of the lottery would help.

                                                                                

球隊就像人類個體，是自利的，NBA當局最好確定球隊的最大利益不在算計，樂透選秀制度

做些調整就有效。

                                                                                

新聞來源:http://ppt.cc/SvOX

How I would solve the NBA's tanking problem 要如何解決排名的算計(上)

Under the current system, the NBA's worst team (currently the Jazz) would be
rewarded in the lottery.
                                                                             
圖說:在現今的體制下，吊車尾的球隊(現在是爵士隊)會在樂透選秀中獲得最大利益。
                                                                             
One of the most successful coaches of the last 50 years just took a stand
against ... losing.
OK, perhaps the stand was not that bold. But it was the way Mike Krzyzewski said
it that stood out. He was asked about NBA teams tanking their seasons for high
draft choices, which they can use on Duke's Jabari Parker, Kansas's Andrew
Wiggins, or Kentucky's Julius Randle, all of whom made my hoops-nerd heart skip
a few beats Tuesday night.
                                                                             
某位過去五十載都非常成功的教頭站出來反對…輸球，好吧，或許他這樣站出來沒有我們所
想的那麼英勇無畏，但就是Coach K讓這議題發燒。當他被問到NBA球隊為樂透選秀犧牲戰績
，並可望用在杜克的Jabari Parker、堪薩斯Andrew Wiggins或肯塔基Julius Randle等，這
些週二上場讓我這球癡心室顫抖的球員身上時。
                                                                             
Coach K's response:
"As an American, I wouldn't like to think that an American team would want to
lose or create situations where you would want to lose," Krzyzewski said. "I
can't even fathom -- I can't go there. I can't believe that that would happen.
Maybe I'm naive and I'm going to go read a fairy tale after this."

Coach K這麼回應：

「身為一個老美，我不喜歡美國球隊想輸球，或創造輸球的態勢。我甚至不敢揣摸，我不敢

相信這會發生，或許是我太傻太天真，我該再去翻翻童話故事書才對。」

                                                                                

The NBA has a tanking problem. As with most NBA problems, it is not quite as big

 a problem as it appears. To some extent, it is a problem of perception -- there

really aren't many teams that you can fairly accuse of tanking. Some of them are

just bad.

But still, even the perception is a concern for the league. It gets to the heart

of the biggest criticism of the NBA: That teams don't take the regular-season as

seriously as teams in other sports.

                                                                                

這個排名的算計，跟其他問題比起來，也不算那麼的嚴重，那只是大家觀念上的問題-因為

有些隊伍你沒法指控他們有在算計，因為他們實在太鳥了。

但即便如此，這觀念上的問題還是被大家所關心，這也是NBA當局招致的批評：我們的球隊

對例行賽戰績沒像其他職業運動這麼的當一回事。

                                                                                

I have a solution to this, and it involves a tweak to the lottery. I will

explain that in a minute. But first, let's define "tanking". It is one of those

terms that people throw around too easily, and we need to distinguish it from

patience.

PATIENCE: Management understands the team may not win in the short-term, but the

long-term plan is more important.

TANKING: The team is actively trying to lose.

                                                                                

我有解藥，這也跟樂透籤有關，我馬上為各位做解說，但首先我們先定義「排名的算計」，

這太容易被玩弄於股掌之間，我們也要從耐心中去分辨它。

                                                                                

耐心：制服組明瞭短期內無望了，所以長期戰略更為重要。

排名的算計：於是這支球隊試著放掉比賽。

                                                                                

This is a subtle distinction, but it is an important one. More than ever, smart

sports fans understand the value of patient management. (Fans are not so patient

with coaches, but that is another column). You don't want your team blowing its

future payroll by overpaying a player who is just past his prime. You don't want

to trade future first-round picks just to get the current team to .500. You want

management to let young pitchers develop, to find the quarterback of the future

and nurture him, to stockpile young talent and draft picks instead of just big

names. You want patience.

                                                                                

這就是微妙的區別，但還有更重要的，聰明如你的球迷了解這臥薪嘗膽的策略(球迷可不像

教練這麼有耐心，但這不在本文討論範圍內)，你也不想你的球隊為某個過氣的大物付太多

ROSENBERG: NBA teams can't go wrong with Wiggins, Parker, Randle

                                                                                

Tanking is different. Tanking is when management tries to assemble the worst

possible team, and even sabotages its lineups in an effort to lose games. In the

NBA, teams tank so they can get the highest possible draft choice, thereby

landing a franchise player. You don't see it as much in other sports because one

player means more in basketball, and there is usually a big drop-off from the

top of the NBA draft to the rest of it. There are years when the No. 5, 6, 7, 8,

9, 10, 11 and 12 picks in the NBA Draft, combined, are not worth as much as the

No. 1 pick.

                                                                                

排名的算計是不一樣的，它是制服組組合出最差的球隊，並試著搞破壞讓其輸球，在NBA體

制裡面它們就能獲得較高順位，這在其他職業運動不常見因為單一球員在籃球運動中變因更

大，且我們也有很多大物棄學生，你如果將過去幾年第五到十二順位的成績加起來，恐怕還

不及狀元籤的威力。

                                                                                

Krzyzewski is right: Tanking is un-American, and rewarding it is unseemly.

And yet ... well, that is what the NBA lottery does. It rewards teams that try

to lose and punishes teams that try to win. To understand the extent of the

problem, just look at the odds for the 2013 lottery:

                                                                                

Coach K是對的：排名算計太不老美了，回報獎勵也不是很適宜。

那就是樂透選秀的制度，獎勵輸家懲罰贏家，要更了解這問題，我們就來看看2013年的

樂透籤

                                                                                

2012-13戰績表 14支末流球隊

                                                                                

球隊               戰績    狀元籤機率  三鼎甲機率

Orlando           20-62    25.0 %         64.3%

Charlotte          21-61   19.9              55.8

Cleveland         24-58   15.6              46.9

Phoenix            25-57   11.9              37.6

New Orleans    27-55   8.8                29.2

Sacramento      28-54   6.3                21.5

Detroit             29-53   3.6                14.3

Washington     29-53    3.5                10.7

Minnesota       31-51    1.7                -

Portland          33-49    1.1                -

Philadelphia     34-48    0.8                -

Toronto*        34-48     0.7                -

Dallas             41-41     0.6                -

*Oklahoma City actually had this choice; the Raptors dealt it to Houston, which

traded it in the package for James Harden. But for the purposes of this

discussion, let's call it Toronto's draft choice.

*雷霆替代了暴龍，因暴龍跟火箭Harden的包裹交易，但在本文中，我們還是看做是暴龍的

                                                                                

Imagine you are a general manager. What does that chart tell you? It says that

if you will be bad, you should be REALLY bad. The Magic, which torpedoed their

season after Dwight Howard stopped flipping coins and finally decided he really

truly did want to be traded, was six times as likely to get the top pick as the

Pistons and Wizards. Orlando also had a 64.3 percent chance of getting a

top-three pick, and a 100-percent chance of getting a top-four pick. The NBA

clearly rewarded Orlando for being awful.

                                                                                

想像一下你是總管，這圖表透漏了什麼？他告訴你如果是魔術總管，你慘了，在Dwight

Howard胡鬧完終於決定自己要被交易到哪一隊後，你比Pistons與Wizards有大六倍的機率拿

到狀元籤，且有64.3%的可能拿到順位，然後100%的機率拿到前四名，這大大獎勵了魔術隊

搞砸一切。

                                                                                

Sure, sometimes teams toward the bottom of the lottery jump to the top when the

ping-pong balls pop out on lottery night. But in the past few years, quite a few

teams looked like they were trying to get one of the three worst records in the

league.

It is now commonly accepted in the NBA: You either want to contend, or you want

to "bottom out" ... there is no virtue in simply being just "pretty good."

                                                                                

當然，有些樂透順位較低的球隊在開獎時又跳了上來，但在過去幾年，相當多球隊看來是要

故意擺爛的。

這是普遍共識啦，不管你要打好，還是擺爛，對那些「還不錯」的球隊是沒好處的。

                                                                                

How did this happen? When the lottery began, in 1985, the big prize was

Georgetown's Patrick Ewing, one of the greatest college players of all-time, and

a guy who was already as marketable as almost every star in the NBA. The NBA was

worried teams would tank to get Ewing. The lottery was invented. Seven

non-playoff teams all had an equal chance at Ewing. There was no benefit to

being extra stinky.

                                                                                

這是怎麼發生的，當樂透籤1985年開始，當時最大獎Patrick Ewing，最偉大的大學籃球員

中的其中一員，早已像其他NBA球星般聲名遠播，NBA當局擔心球隊會對Patrick Ewing算計

，所以發明了樂透籤，七隻沒打季後賽的球隊都有一樣的機率，完全沒有多餘獎勵給最鳥的

那支球隊。

                                                                                

The Knicks won that lottery, of course, launching a thousand conspiracies. The

NBA had accomplished its goal, though: It had eliminated the incentive to tank.

Knicks最後贏了，當然，大家也說是陰謀論，NBA當局又玩這種伎倆達成目的，然而，這消

弭算計的動機。聯盟到1990年才擺脫均等的制度，當他覺察到，OK，就是有人比別人更鳥。